Sunday, September 19, 2010

Books To Add To My Ever Growing Pile Of To-Read Books

I love books. If you haven't realised this by now, you must have just started reading this blog or you just don't know me very well. On top of loving books, I also hoard them. I have multiple plastic storage boxes full of books that are read and a few more boxes filled with books that I have yet to start reading. This, of course, doesn't stop me from wanting and adding more to the already growing pile.

With one of the local book stores having a sale (when is it never having a sale?), I might just drop by to check if they have the books that I want.


1. The Malay Archipelago
This book was actually introduced to me, in passing, during my Evolution & Phylogeny class when we were discussing about Darwin's theory of evolution. I've never been that much interested in studying evolution in depth, so it wasn't until this class that I discovered that it's actually a lot more interesting than I thought it was.

Anyway, the book was written by Alfred Russel Wallace who was a naturalist who lived in the South East Asian region back in the 1800s. Basically, the book is like a chronicle of his travels, his scientific research and his observations. I'm very interested in reading on how different the region must be like more than a century ago and if we can still find at least a tiny speck of what was seen back then if we travel through the region.


2. Blameless
The third book in The Parasol Protectorate series. I'm still currently reading Changeless, the book before this, but my friends are bugging me to quickly finish it so that I can get on to the third book, just so that we can squee about it together. The ladies I hang out with don't squee very often and it's usually over books and from the previous books, this series is very squee worthy.

On top of wanting to know what happens in the next book, I wonder what Madame Lefoux will be wearing in the next book. That lady has the most outrageous and yet amazing outfits in the book. Or at least I think so from the image I have of her in my head.


3. The Phoenix Transformed
This is the third book in The Enduring Flame trilogy. I've been waiting at least a year for this book to be out in paperback and as of yet, I have not seen it in the book stores. The story takes place a thousand years after the events of The Obsidian Trilogy, which is one of my most favourite trilogies by Mercedes Lackey.

There are dragons, mages and magic in this series. Unfortunately no unicorns, which I miss since the unicorns in The Obsidian Trilogy have such distinctive personalities that make you wish you had one as a friend, though you had to be chaste and celibate to even come close to one. Tough, huh?


I realised that I have not included a romance novel in a reading list for quite some time now. Truthfully, I've not actually found one that made me impatiently waiting to read it. Lately, it's been the fantasy and the science genres that has been grabbing my attention. Is this what it means to have a maturing taste in reading? Or not?

HEADLINES !!!

• Asian Stocks Fall on U.S. Economic Growth Concern
• Europe Debt Crisis Abates as Traders See Yield Spreads Narrow
• Yen Strengthens on Speculation U.S. Housing Market Will Be Slow to Recover

OVERALL VIEW:

Dow Jones : Broke 10580. BUY towards 10730 easy. Mid term Sell near
10730 level

USD Index : Should test 81 level again. Buy near 81 level

Gold : Buy to 1300 easy and Sell near 1300 level

Crude Oil : Sell to 70.80 level

Soft commodities : Super run in Softs signifying a possible sell in Stocks
soon

Bonds : Temporary bottom found at 129.00 level

SET50 : Uncertain today. Stay out



TAKE NOTE: PLEASE TRADE SHORT TERM FOR NOW. MARKETS THESE DAYS WILL NOT RUN A CERTAIN DIRECTION FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. TRENDS ARE HARD TO HOLD EVEN FOR MORE THAN 1 WEEK.



MAJOR ECONOMIC and WORLD EVENTS THIS WEEK:

26 - 28 October World Economic Forum on the Middle East and North Africa Marrakech, Morocco



OVERALL VIEW

Signs indicate that this week should be time for a retracement in US stocks. Firm soft commodities and bottoming Bonds point to a Sell in US stocks


TODAY’S TRADE

INTRADAY TRADES


NO TRADE ON TODAY




Please Note: That Trailing Stop is merely used as an option, it is not necessary to place it if you choose not to. For our company trade, we use
Trailing Stop)


FACTORS THAT MAY AFFECT OUR POSITIONS/MARKETS:

GMT

0830 UK Mortgage Approvals






Big Company Earnings
NO COMPANY EARNING ON TODAY


NO HOLIDAY ON TODAY


Open Positions (Unrealized Profits/Losses)/Closed Positions (Realized Profits/Losses)


TOTAL UNREALIZED PIPS = + 83
TOTAL UNREALIZED PROFITS/LOSSES = + $ US 830
TOTAL REALIZED PIPS = - 19
TOTAL REALIZED PROFITS/LOSSES = - $ US 190

Saturday, September 18, 2010

School Bus Donations

A car donation is a courteous and easy way to contribute to a noble cause. People can sponsor a school bus or donate a used school bus to an organization or any charitable group that works for social services. Organizations either use the car for the society's needs or may even sell it to raise funds for their activities.

Many non-profit organizations are now willing to donate buses to schools. It is true that a small group of thoughtful, dedicated individuals can change the world. This is possible only because of donors who go out of their way to provide help to the needy.

Some non-profit day care centers use donated school buses to get children back and forth. They must be sure that the buses are in total repair and have no problems. They do not accept old school buses, and they have to be equipped with seat safety belts for each occupant.

Online sites are available that provide details of various school bus non-profit charities. People can either purchase them at a low cost or can even hire them. The website will tell you how to go about donating school buses and also provide information on how to receive a school bus from a charitable organization. Individuals can also register for these buses online.

The organization that people donate their school bus to usually takes care of everything from transfer of ownership to towing the car. All donors need to do is call the organization. If people wish to donate a school bus, online forms are available through many auto donation sources. Donors may submit the form and receive an early reply, with most vehicles gladly excepted. It is advisable to have the bus title ready and other relevant paper work required.

Common Car Problems Everyone Should Be Aware Of

Unless you have an avid interest in automobiles and know everything there is to know about vehicles, the average driver is not aware of common car issues. Just a hint of something being "off" with your car can be alarming. Here are five car problems you should be aware of, just in case of an emergency.

Engine Knock - Most of the noise coming from the engine is probably road debris that is lodged in between the trends of one of your car's tires or too great clearance between the components located in the valve train. If there is a persistent engine knock though, take your car to a qualified mechanic.

Squeaky Brakes - There can be many reasons why the brakes from your car squeaks-vibrations between the pads and the rotors, pads and the calipers, or calipers and the mounts. The squeal from the brakes could even be made with your shoes and the drums or shoes and backing plates. Again though if it persists, take it to the shop.

Check Engine Light - The check engine light is a service reminder built into your vehicle that illuminates whenever your car's computer thinks there is a problem with the emission control system. Usually, it is nothing major, but if the light color is red, your car may need immediate attention.

Vehicle Pulls to One Side - This problem simply means that your car's alignment is off, which can be easily fixed by taking the vehicle in for realignment. Just be aware when your car starts to veer off to one specific side.

Rough Ride - If your once smooth car suddenly turns rough, it may be your shock absorbers and struts. If this problem is fixed early on, it won't become a major issue, but if not, it might require an entirely new shocks or struts to get your car ride back to being smooth again.

How to Donate Your Old Car Through Charity Organizations

Almost all of us give charities in one form or the other and feel better every time we donate something. It does not necessarily have to be something huge; we often donate a few bucks, or sometimes even food, to help others. On the other hand, sometimes, we want to do something big for the needy people, and in some circumstances, we might even donate our cars.

If you are a resident of Seattle and plan to donate your car, you might be surprised to know that you are not the only one intending to do so. There are many people who donate their cars all over the US and make valuable donations to different charity organizations. Hence, donating a car even in Seattle is not that difficult. It can also be a two-way deal that benefits the receiver as well as the donor in one way or the other.

You can either donate a car just to help people commute easily, or you can gain profits by giving it as a charity. Charity organizations sell the donated cars and give the money to the poor people. Giving your car to a charity organization is an easy way to get rid of an unwanted car, parked at your garage, as well as to receive tax deduction.

Different charity organizations provide you with numerous facilities, which include picking the vehicle from your place. This facility saves you from the hassle as well as the expense of making the arrangements for getting the car dropped at the office of a charity organization. Many charity organizations also offer handling all the paper work, so that your time can be saved and the work can be done as soon as possible. These factors make the process of car donation so easy that you do not have to worry about anything at all; you can leave all the procedures to the charity organizations.

There are a lot of options available for giving charity; you can find out about the one that suits you the online, in case you are also looking for some benefit in return. You can get benefits in the form of tax deduction, which these charity organizations offer; so, choose the organization that offers a good deal. There is nothing wrong about getting some perks while you donate your car to a charity organization.

Before you donate your car in Seattle, make sure that you know about the options that are available. Charity organizations offer different deals, depending upon the condition of the car. If your car is in a good condition and needs only minor repairs, it would most likely be given to a family that needs a source of transportation for commuting.

If the car is totally ruined and is beyond repair, its parts will be sold separately in the market. The money generated from selling these parts will then be given to the needy people. It is also possible that the charity organization give your car to the seller and uses the money to help the poor people.

So, if you are seriously considering donating your car in Seattle, make sure that you are aware of all the factors involved. The most important thing is to make sure that all the transactions involved are legal and not a fraud in any way.

Friday, September 3, 2010

With The Economy Struggling, Why Haven't Equities Fallen Even Further?

The deterioration in the economy has been clear in recent months, but the equity markets have confounded many investors. Stocks are just 10.6% off their highs and have shown some remarkable resilience, particularly in the last few weeks. There’s a great tug-of-war going on underneath what appears like a potentially frightening macro picture. A closer look shows that what we’ve primarily seen is deterioration in the macro outlook and not so much in specific corporate outlooks. Despite the persistently weak economy, earnings aren’t falling out of bed. Without a sharp decline in earnings there is unlikely to be a sharp decline in the equity markets (outside of some exogenous event such as a sovereign default). The most distinct characteristic I can recall from the the 2007/2008 market downturn was the persistent deterioration in earnings. Like dominoes we saw the various industries go down one by one: housing, then banks, then consumer discretionary and on down the line. While the macro picture has deteriorated recently we haven’t seen the same sort of deterioration in earnings that we saw in 2007 and 2008. In a recent strategy note JP Morgan elaborated on the divergence between the macro outlook and the earnings outlook: “What matters for equities is earnings and not GDP growth. US GDP growth projections are being cut, but earnings projections have been little affected so far. Investors and analysts are hoping that, to the extent the soft patch in US GDP growth lasts for only a few quarters and does not spillover to the rest of the world, US companies will be able to protect their revenues and profits. Indeed, this is what happened during 2Q, when US companies were able to deliver strong top line and EPS growth even as US GDP grew at only a 1% pace. It is a prolonged soft patch that poses the greater threat for corporate earnings and equity markets as it raises the specter of deflation and profit margin contraction. Why is deflation bad for corporate profitability? When nominal interest rates are bounded at zero, a fall in expected inflation causes a rise in real interest rates and the cost of capital, hurting corporate profitability. In addition, nominal wage rigidities mean that deflation reduces output prices by more than input prices putting pressure on corporate profitability. Indeed, the Japanese experience of the 1990s provides an example of the erosion in corporate margins under a deflationary environment.” BlackRock’s Bob Doll also highlighted this in his latest strategy note: “To us, one of the more interesting features of the current economic and market landscape has been the continued resilience of the corporate sector in the midst of weak economic data. The growth in corporate profits and the ongoing decline in corporate credit spreads are forecasting economic strength. In fact, corporate profit margins as a percentage of GDP are near 40-year highs. During a normal economic cycle, such levels would encourage companies to spend more on capital expenditures and/or ramp up hiring plans, but most companies have remained reluctant to reduce their cash levels. We have seen some increases in capital spending, but a lower amount than would normally be expected given current profits, and, of course, private sector hiring has remained anemic. Some of this reluctance to spend can be attributed to uncertainty surrounding potential legislative and regulatory changes coming out of Washington, but we believe that we are at a point where companies will need to either accept slower growth levels or begin to put more of their capital to work.” The ability of US corporations to maintain their bottom lines in the last two years has been remarkable. But this strength in earnings will not persist without a rebound in revenues. As I recently highlighted analysts have become increasingly optimistic about the rebound in corporate profits, however, the sustainability of a margin based recovery is limited without organic revenue growth. My analysis leads me to believe that the macro outlook will remain weak despite recent signs of strength in some reports. Corporations tend to be reactive to the macro outlook which likely means they will keep their cost controls tight and maintain a defensive posture. At the end of the chain is the analysts, who tend to be reactive to what corporations tell them. The best way to visualize this is with the following image. The macro economy tends to be the leading factor in corporate decisions. This is why we will often see the business cycle peak at the point of rampant exuberance and mass layoffs at the trough in the cycle. Corporations are not always out in front of the business cycle and in fact are usually reactive to the macro environment. When times are good they spend. When times are really good they spend excessively. The opposite goes for the downside. Analysts are the ultimate lagging factor in the equation. A close study of analyst’s expectations will reveal very close ties to what corporations actually tell them. This generally comes via the form of press releases (when Apple says they’ll earn $1 next quarter 75% of the analyst estimates are near $1 even though Apple ALWAYS beats), but can also come via the form of direct communication with analysts. Corporations understand that the estimates matter a great deal to their stock price performance so they keep communications tight. A growing economy is the perfect environment for wise executives who literally toy with the analysts by continually under promising and overdelivering. The macro picture has deteriorated in recent months, but it has not collapsed. This has reduced the margin for error in terms of corporate earnings. Toying with the analysts isn’t as easy as it was 6 months ago. Intel and Cisco’s warnings a few weeks ago were likely previews of what will become a trend in the coming two months. If the macro picture continues to deteriorate (which I think there is a fairly high probability of) we will slowly see a deterioration in corporate earnings and a lagging effect at the analyst level. But with a slowly deteriorating macro picture this won’t unravel overnight. While most investors like to wish that this process would occur immediately (the equity markets suffer from a nasty case of A.D.D.) that just isn’t the case. The global economy is like a battleship moving through rough sees. Right now, I think we’re at a critical juncture where the ship is turning south through rough seas. Deterioration at the macro level is clear, though we are likely to see it play itself out over the course of several quarters. If the macro environment deteriorates more than I presume the earnings picture will have a snowball effect. And of course, the same can be said of a positive macro surprise (with markets reacting positively). While we’re beginning to see cracks in the earnings foundation we are not seeing a full blown collapse as we saw in 200

Your 10-Second Guide To What Happened Overnight

Rose moderately, but China was hit by bank concerns. Markets appear to have cheered yesterday's U.S. rally. Techs outperformed while there was weakness in Chinese financials. Mainland Chinese stocks lagged the region with China's CSI300 marking a slight loss for the day.

China Securities Journal warned that four out of five of China's largest banks reported increases in special-mention loans according to the Wall Street Journal.

China's Vanke, the largest residential real estate developer, reported that sales doubled in August year-over-year. The stock started strong, but then slumped in late-trading. China's Poly Real Estate fell yet again. Thus all is not well in Chinese property.

Chart

EUROPE: Already moving higher, looking for cues from the U.S.. A European central bank governor has said that the economy will be 'okay' in the third quarter. Romania's PM will remove his economic and finance ministers, as he struggles to survive from criticism of his efforts to push through austerity measures. It's a message to all of Europe -- you can say you plan to fix the budget, but it doesn't mean you can, politically.

Overall, however, today's U.S. jobs report is likely to be the focus.

Chart

MACRO: Gold inching higher above $1,250. The Baltic Dry spiked over 3%. Newbbuilding inquiries are picking up after a summer slump. Perhaps the BDI rebound is getting people more interested.

Chart

U.S. FUTURES: Are fighting around the baseline. Watch for the payrolls report at 8:30 AM ET and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 10:00 AM.

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